What can the midterm elections of 2022 tell us about the elections of 2024? That was the topic of discussion at a League of Women Voters of Berrien and Cass Counties presentation in Bridgman on Tuesday. Lake Michigan College political science instructor Tiffany Bohm went over statistics of 2022 and predicted who could run for president in 2024. On the Republican side, she said candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump in 2022 lost almost across the board, suggesting his influence could be waning. She added Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is already making national waves while much posturing is done behind the scenes. Bohm also predicted we’ll have three House Speakers in the next two years. If Congress can’t get anything done, might that motivate people to vote in 2024? Bohm told us the precedent shows the opposite.
“If government is unproductive and is not reflecting the will of the people regardless of their party, it actually deters voter turnout so people actually won’t vote,” Bohm said. “Unless there’s incentive for them to vote, unless they feel positively about their representatives doing something for them, they’re not going to turn out to vote.”
On the Democratic side, Bohm said the likely candidates for president in 2024 are either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris, and barring them, Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom, Amy Klobuchar, and Gretchen Whitmer. We asked if Whitmer is really a viable candidate.
“She’s viewed as one, absolutely, because of her profile. She is viewed as a potential candidate. Whether she actually chooses to act on that or whether she’s enticed by her party to run as a quality candidate, that I don’t know.”
Bohm said Whitmer caught the national spotlight during the Trump administration by opposing some of its policies. The biggest factors in who will be the top candidates in 2024 are high profile endorsements and fundraising. Bohm noted turnout was high in states with abortion questions on the ballot in 2022, but as for the issue’s effect on 2024, she said it will depend on the candidates and how they frame the issue.